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ICEJ NEWS SERVICE FROM JERUSALEM

News and comment on Middle East affairs, compiled by journalists at
the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem, publishers of the
monthly Middle East Digest.


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CLINTON TO GUARANTEE ASSAD ON FULL WITHDRAWAL AND US AID

Press reports in advance of Sunday's Geneva summit between US
President Bill Clinton and Syrian dictator Hafez al-Assad indicate the
American leader will deliver Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's offer
of a return to the "June 4, 1967" - to be defined later in talks - as
well as a commitment of US aid to Damascus. A breakthrough on the
Syrian track is therefore imminent, dependent mainly on Assad's
flexiblity on his demand for a return to the shoreline of the Kinneret
and acceptance of the package of US benevolence.

The deal is so close that Barak reportedly will be waiting at a
moment's notice to travel to Geneva on Sunday and join Clinton and
Assad in a possible three-way, historic summit on neutral soil.

Despite cautious predictions by Israeli and US officials as to whether
talks will resume soon, a number of diplomatic and other sources say
Barak has been working in recent days to clarify to Clinton exactly
what the US President is to convey to Assad - an Israeli willingness
to withdraw to what will be called the "June 1967" boundaries, with
certain modifications. That boundary line was never charted, but lies
generally a kilometer or two west of the 1923 international border
between the Mandates of Syria and Palestine. The eventual permanent
border will be demarcated in negotiations and called the "June 1967,"
an offer meant to appease Assad, who can then tell his people he got
back "every grain of Syrian sand."

The main border alteration Barak hopes to conclude with Assad is
exchanging a strip of land at least 40-meters wide along the northwest
shore of the Sea of Galilee for a piece of Israeli land elsewhere -
most likely the warm springs at Hamat Gader near the junction of the
Yarmuk River and the lower Jordan.

Aides to Barak also say he is requesting that Assad make "shows of
normalizations" with Israel before any Golan settlers are asked to
evacuate. The aides say that Barak advocates a wide range of
confidence-building measures in the initial stages of a peace
agreement with Syria, but this does not include the opening of
embassies. They claim he is showing flexibility on the Hermon
early-warning station as well.

Regarding his expectations of the Geneva summit, Barak yesterday told
coalition leaders, "There is a fifty percent chance of a renewal of
talks, no more than that... It's impossible to know where this will
go." But reports say he has held several phone conversations with
Clinton and two meetings with US Ambassador Martin Indyk this week,
intended to clarify his negotiating position on the border issue so
the Americans would be able to present it accurately during the
Assad-Clinton meeting.

Meanwhile, both in internal discussions and in telephone conversations
with Turkish President Suleyman Demirel and Egyptian President Hosni
Mubarak yesterday, Barak stressed that, if a deal is not struck,
Israel would unilaterally redeploy from southern Lebanon this June,
and would not hesitate to retaliate harshly if Hizbullah attacked the
North. Barak has clarified that such a unilateral withdrawal would
remove the IDF entirely from Lebanon, without retaining a strip of
outposts about a half-kilometer north of the international border.

But Barak also has been in close contact with UN Secretary General
Kofi Annan and French President Jacques Chirac in an apparent attempt
to assure their backing and involvement in a package deal that
involves a quick resolution of the Lebanese problem as well. The
French and UN would be involved in monitoring an agreed IDF withdrawal
from the south Lebanon security zone and in security arrangements
along the new Israeli boundaries with Syria and Lebanon.

In another indication of a looming breakthrough, US Defense Secretary
William Cohen will visit Israel next week in a trip designed, in part,
to deal with American defense aid to Israel following a peace
agreement. That US compensation package is crucial to Barak's bid to
sell the Israeli public on  a surrender of the strategic Golan
plateau, and faces a tough battle for approval in a skeptical US
Congress. The White House reportedly has linked the package of
advanced US weaponry to an Israeli pledge not to sell advanced
military technologies to China.

Persistent press reports claim the total US financial commitment of
military and economic aid to Israel and Syria could top US$45 billion,
a figure confirmed by TIME international editor Joshua Copper Ramos on
CNN Thursday. The Syrian component would be around $15 billion, and is
part of the assurances Clinton will convey on Sunday to Assad.

In yet another signal of movement, Barak yesterday appointed Maj.-Gen.
(res.) Haggai Shalom, a close Barak associate and the person who
successfully ran One Israel's field operations during the election
campaign, to head the Golan referendum team.

Expressing views echoed by other knowledgeable sources and even Arab
newspapers, the deputy foreign minister of Israel and Assad biographer
Patrick Seale both agreed that neither Clinton nor Assad have time to
waste, and would not have scheduled the meeting if a major compromise
was not underway. Ever since talks broke off last January 10, US
diplomats have worked quietly but feverishly behind the scenes to
salvage the Syrian track, and have stressed that they would not renew
the process in public unless and until they were assured of its
eventual success.

When asked in an interview with ABC TV from New Delhi if he had a
concrete offer for Assad, Clinton said it was safe to assume that "I
wouldn't waste his time - I think that we have - it's time for us to
talk about what we think it would take to resume these talks and move
to a resolution. And I'm going to give him my honest opinion about
where we are and where I think we can go."

The US has decided not to schedule a press conference after the Sunday
talks, purportedly out of concern the summit may falter. However, it
is more likely that there will be no session with reporters due to
Assad's stubborn insistence that Israeli journalists not attend.

In the meantime, the leading Lebanese newspaper AN-NAHAR published an
unusually direct editorial yesterday addressed to Col. Bashar Assad,
the son and heir apparent of the Syria dictator, expressing fears that
Syria will never recognize Lebanon as a sovereign state. In "An Open
Letter to Bashar Assad," the editor-in-chief wrote, "People here ask,
Dr. Bashar, about the future of Lebanon and the purpose of the
existence of the Syrian army in Lebanon. They ask if the price of
peace in the region is that Syria will finally lay its hand completely
on Lebanon! People fear the future and fear for the identity and fate
of Lebanon, and believe that Syria does not and will never recognize
Lebanon as an independent sovereign state."

Over 35,000 Syrian troops exercise control over 90% of Lebanon, and as
Assad has had a stranglehold over the nation which began in 1976. UN
resolutions and inter-Arab agreements call on the Syrian army to leave
the country. Col. Assad now holds the Lebanon portfolio on behalf of
his father.

The editorial letter to Bashar continues: "You have visited Lebanon
many times, and you have visited with many politicians who may have
told you what you wanted but not what you needed to hear, about the
views of some Lebanese citizens concerning Syria's policy in Lebanon.
Many of these politicians fear Syria more than they want it."

The letter goes on to say, "You ought to know that many people in
Lebanon are unhappy with Syria's behavior in Lebanon or with the
Syrian military presence here. This does not mean - as some say - that
they are traitors or collaborators with Israel. This is merely their
natural desire for sovereignty and independence."

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Official: Secret talks to decide future of Jerusalem
United Press International - March 19, 2000

By SAUD ABU RAMADAN

GAZA, March 19 (UPI) - A senior Palestine Liberation Organization
official said Sunday that Israeli and Palestinian negotiators were
holding secret talks in two European capitals to decide the future of
Jerusalem.

The official, Faysal Husseini, a PLO committee member who holds the
Palestinian Authority portfolio for Jerusalem, told the Arab magazine
Al Mejallah that the talks in Rome and Paris were to try and find a
solution to the future of Jerusalem.

"The Israeli delegation showed readiness and understanding to some of
the ideas and points that the Palestinian delegation brought in the
talks," Husseini said.

The Palestinians want the eastern part of Jerusalem, which was
captured by Israel during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, to be the
capital of its future independent state. Israel, however, insists
that united Jerusalem is its eternal capital.

Husseini said the meeting was decided in order to reach an
understanding on the issue of Jerusalem before Israel and the
Palestinians sign the framework agreement on the final status issues
in May. The two sides agreed to reach a permanent settlement on
Sept. 13. The issues are related to Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees,
Jewish settlements, water, borders and external security.

Meanwhile, Israel on Sunday released three Palestinian "security
prisoners" from a jail in northern Israel, Israel Radio reported. The
= three, all residents of Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem and members
of = Yasser Arafat's Fatah faction, were set free as a goodwill
gesture to = mark the Moslem holiday of Eid El Adha.

They were identified as Osama Ta'ha, who was serving a life sentence
for killing another Palestinian prisoner in 1985; Said Hussein Ali,
who was serving a 15-year sentence for stabbing and trying to kill
an Israeli border policeman in East Jerusalem in 1992; and Khalil
Abu Rajab Abdul Majid Rabah, who was given an 11-year sentence in
1990 for "grievous bodily harm".

Ten more Palestinian prisoners are to be released from Israeli prisons
on Monday.

--
Copyright 2000 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

************************************************************************

                 Jerusalem Post: Internet Edition

                            (March 27, 2000)

 http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2000/03/27/News/News.4597.html

               Clinton-Assad summit fails
               By Danna Harman

               GENEVA - US President Bill Clinton and Syrian
President Hafez Assad failed in three hours of talks yesterday to
reach an agreement to restart peace talks between Israel and Syria.

         Contrary to early predictions that the summit would lead to a
breakthrough, they had nothing to announce at the end of their talks.
US special Mideast envoy Dennis Ross is to travel to Jerusalem today
to brief Prime Minister Ehud Barak on the meeting.

        It was unclear what was the sticking point of the discussions
and few details were divulged about their substance. But one US
official said Assad had not been "very receptive" to Clinton's
suggestions. The president reportedly presented Barak's idea about a
withdrawal from the Golan Heights to modified June 4, 1967 lines -
which would not include a withdrawal from the Kinneret.

        An official in Barak's office said the prime minister was
"not disappointed" by the outcome of the Geneva summit, because
expectations of the meeting had been realistic.

     "Clinton spoke with Barak twice yesterday - at the start and at
the finish of the summit - and it was clear at the end that the right
conditions for a resumption of talks were not there," said the official.
"The Americans will continue looking into various options for moving
the process forward," the official added, asserting that "the door to
peace was not yet closed."

      The IDF will continue its preparations to withdraw from
Lebanon, on the assumption an agreement can still be reached with
Syria.

    "The door is not yet closed," said the official. "At the same
time, we are also weighing the possibility of withdrawing in line
with [UN Resolution] 425 [which speaks of a unilateral withdrawal to
the international border.]"

      Barak gathered his senior ministers in his office last night to
discuss the consequences of the failed meeting.

      The Likud last night said the Geneva talks have turned Barak
into a laughingstock.

     "After Barak has already given up on Hamat Gader and agreed to
allow the Syrians to within a few meters of the Kinneret, Assad, in
the last days of his life, is giving Barak a real lesson in
diplomacy," said Likud reaction-team leader Dan Naveh.

     As Clinton boarded Air Force One to return to Washington, his
spokesman, Joe Lockhart, was sent to brief the press, contrary to the
previously announced briefing by Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright or National Security Adviser Sandy Berger. The sight of
Lockhart, a lower official, was as much as sign as anything that the
summit had not gone well.

    Lockhart relayed that the leaders had met for three hours with a
two-hour break, and that the personal chemistry between them was
warm. However, the issues, he said, were tough and the differences
between the sides "had not been narrowed."

               "Clinton thought it important to meet Assad so as try
and further the process. He has met several times with
Barak and so believed this was appropriate," said
Lockhart, who claimed the president was glad to have
held the meeting, and had found it useful.

               "This gave the president a chance to talk face to face
with Assad, to clarify the Israeli needs personally,
and to get a better understanding of Assad's needs,"
said Lockhart.

               "Now, while we do have a better sense of the Syrian
position, differences remain," he said, adding that
Clinton would "continue to help the parties overcome
these differences."

               However, when pressed, Lockhart could not say what
specifically could be done next. The meeting was seen
by many on all sides as a last-ditch effort to get the
process back on track before Clinton leaves office.

               "It is impossible to predict when talks will resume. I
do not believe that the US thinks it would be
productive to resume them now," Lockhart said.
"However, all sides agree to stay at this, continue
work, and bridge differences in order to get the peace
process moving."

               Earlier in the day, Albright gave an interview to CNN
and quoted Clinton as saying that the distance between
the sides was "a short distance, but a hard walk." She
said the president had been working overtime to move
toward an agreement, but in the final analysis, it is
up to the Syrians and Israelis to make it work.

               "We can facilitate and we can ask questions, but the
parties themselves have to make the hard decisions,"
she said.

               Albright said there was a need to be realistic,
considering the two countries have been at odds for
such a long time. "One thing I have learned is not to
predict success on any of these talks. They are very
difficult. Each has its own dynamic. The president is
putting a lot of effort into this but there is no
guarantee here," she said.

               Later, speaking to CBS's Face the Nation, Albright said
Clinton was taking somewhat of a risk in talking with
Assad, because the outcome was not known in advance.
Asked after the meeting whether Clinton felt he had
been humiliated by Assad, Lockhart responded with a
terse "no."

               In Jerusalem, Barak told the weekly cabinet session the
chances of talks resuming following the Geneva parley
were only 50 percent. Going into the Clinton-Assad
meeting, the US already had a good idea about thinking
in Damascus, said Barak. In the run-up to the session,
Barak spoke at least twice with Clinton and also with
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, French President
Jacques Chirac, and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

               Meanwhile, negotiations continue between Israel and the
US over the future strategic security relationship
between the two states. The upshot of the talks, said
Barak, he hopes will be a security understanding.
Within any agreement, the supply of US Tomahawk cruise
missiles is likely to be limited, because of American
regulations preventing large-scale exports, added the
premier.

               Barak also warned ministers that should the IDF have to
unilaterally withdraw from Lebanon by July, the
short-term security bill will amount to NIS 150
million, in addition to the NIS 95m. already committed
in the event of a withdrawal as part of an agreement.

               According to AP, Barak also said a unilateral pullout
would cost almost three times as much as a pullout that
would be part of security arrangements with Syria and
Lebanon.

               Whether talks resume with Syria or not, the Palestinian
peace track will continue, said Barak.

               The National Religious Party yesterday renewed its
threat to quit the coalition should any agreement
involve a withdrawal from the entire Golan Heights.
"Clinton's pressuring Assad and Israel is neither good
nor fair," said the party's Deputy Education Minister
Shaul Yahalom.

               During the summit Barak also said in an ABC interview
yesterday he is optimistic about his chances of
striking peace deals with Syria and the Palestinians.
He pledged once again that he would not sign any deals
unless they strengthened Israel's standing in the
region.

               "I believe that this event will unveil the masks and
we'll know once and for all from the highest possible
kind of level of leadership whether we have an
opportunity to make peace with Syria," Barak told ABC
in an interview taped before the end of the summit in
Geneva.

               Barak confirmed he had spoken to Clinton before the
meeting, but declined to say whether he had given the
president any assurances to pass on to Assad, who is
eager to know whether Israel is committed to
withdrawing to the June 4, 1967 border on the Golan
Heights. He said Clinton knows Israel's and Syria's
needs.

               "The only question is whether those needs can be
brought together into a deal. I'm fully confident that
I will not sign an agreement that will not strengthen
the security of Israel," Barak said.

               Barak outlined Israel's main demands for a deal with
Syria which include: control of Golan water sources,
early warning capability, normalization, and a solution
to the Lebanon problem. "We are looking forward to the
possibility of peace," said Barak, "but it is up to
Assad, as we said before."

               (David Zev Harris and Janine Zacharia contributed to
               this report.)

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