From: heb_roots_chr@mail.geocities.com Sent: Tuesday, September 16, 1997 12:26 AM To: Hebraic Heritage Newsgroup Subject: A Soon Israel and Syria War? -- Part II
>From Steve Cope To: heb_roots_chr@geocities.com Subject: News
> > NEWS QUOTES FROM > ARTICLES BELOW: >---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > The Independent (London) > August 3, 1997, Sunday > > "Ticking towards disaster; > The West is ignoring all the signs that the > Middle East is about to explode, says Robert Fisk" > > By Robert Fisk > > The "peace process" is long dead. A war is not far away. Almost >anyone in the Middle East will tell you this. Almost no one in the >United States or Europe believes it. They talk - as the Secretary of >State, Madeleine Albright, did on Friday - of a "low point" in the >peace process, as if the whole flawed Oslo agreement was not already >buried. All the evidence that a bloody explosion is imminent in the >Middle East, of which last week's slaughter in Jerusalem was merely >one more sign, is wilfully ignored. > > For months now, Benjamin Netanyahu and his bickering cabinet have >been discussing a reinvasion of Palestinian-held territory. In June, >Uzi Arad, Netanyahu's foreign policy adviser, was telling the leaders >of the powerful American-Israeli lobby group AIPAC that they should do >everything possible to resist congressional calls for a cut in US >financial assistance to Israel, because Israel was likely to take >"decisive and fateful decisions" that would "place Israel in a >delicate security situation". No explanation was given as to what >these "fateful" decisions would be, nor why they would place Israel in >so "delicate" a state of security. This extraordinary statement was >ignored by the press - except by the Israeli newspaper Maariv. > > At almost the same time - although Mr Arad did not reveal this - >the Israeli army was secretly simulating a reinvasion of all the West >Bank towns and cities that the Israeli government had given back to >the Palestinians. Netanyahu's aides were present at this gloomy >exercise which proved that hundreds of lives would be lost in such an >operation. They concluded, according to David Horowitz of the >Jerusalem Report, that the wholesale retaking of cities like Ramallah >and Hebron was not realistic. They were devising "alternative >strategies" for the eventuality of a full-scale Israeli-Palestinian >confrontation. > > Yet still, incredibly, we fail to read the signs. Take the case of >Yasser Arafat. Before he was weak enough to make peace with Israel - >when he was still one of the world's most wanted "terrorists" - Israel >regularly compared him to Hitler. He was corrupt. He believed in using >violence for political ends. He was a petty tyrant to his own people, >eliminating internal enemies and cynically using a score of >Palestinian secret police organisations against each other. > > Then came Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, Arafat's absurd >support for Baghdad, his political and financial bankruptcy and - with >the hopelessly flawed Oslo agreement - peace with the enemy he had >always sworn to destroy. Overnight, princes, kings and presidents, >and the ever compliant Western media, discovered that Arafat, far from >being a super-terrorist, was a super-statesman. Israel's seal of >approval - a very cynical seal, since Israel needed a weak Palestinian >leader, put the West into overdrive. Arafat was a man with whom one >could do business, the true leader of his people, a future president >of a Palestinian state. > > There was no end to this nonsense. Those of us who wrote that Oslo >was a disaster, that Arafat had mortgaged his house - or "sold it >twice over", as the Egyptian historian Mohamed Heikal put it to me on >the day it was revealed - were vilified as spoilers of peace, as >supporters of "terrorism" or, slanderous though the accusation was, >"anti-Semitic". When I pointed out that Oslo provided no international >guarantees, that Arafat was a deeply corrupted, untrustworthy man, >that Israel had made no written commitments to halt settlement- >building or share Jerusalem as a capital with the Palestinians, or >leave all of the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip, I was informed >that Israel had every intention of doing so. > > When I suggested that Oslo allowed Israel to renegotiate UN >Security Council Resolution 242 - calling for a total withdrawal from >all occupied land in return for total security, the basis of the >original 1991 US-sponsored Madrid peace conference - I was informed >that trust rather than written agreements would secure peace. > > But in the Middle East over the past few days, a remarkable >transformation has taken place. Arafat is now being accused of giving >the green light to "terror". We are asked to recall the large number >of prisoners who have been tortured or murdered in the jails of the >Palestinian authority. And - horror of horrors - we are told he is >corrupt. Palestinian legislators have demanded the sacking of his >entire cabinet for squandering 40 per cent of the authority's >financial income; all but two ministers offered their resignation. >What is happening is perfectly clear: Arafat is being rebestialised. >He is being returned to pariah status. In preparation for what? > > The United States, needless to say, is applying pressure on Arafat >to "step up the war on terror" - a pressure that was not applied to >the Israelis when they decided to go ahead with their new settlement >on occupied land at Jebel Abu Ghoneim (Har Homa), which was not >applied to the Israelis after the opening of the Jerusalem tunnel >whose funding was provided by Irving Moskovitz (part of whose fortune >was made with American bingo parlours). Nor was American pressure >applied when Israel began to deprive Palestinians of their Jerusalem >residency rights on the grounds that - although their families have >lived there for generations - they have spent too many years outside >the country. Another 120,000 Jerusalem Palestinians now face losing >those same rights because they live on the outskirts of the city. > > But after the massacre of Israelis in Jerusalem last week - a >frightful act that was as wicked as it was inevitable - Arafat was >ordered to resume his role as chief Palestinian policeman. Forget for >a moment that every act of Palestinian "terrorism" is supposed to be >linked to Arafat while every act of Israeli "terrorism" - the Hebron >mosque slaughter or the murder of the Israeli prime minister, for >example - is supposed to be the work of lone, insane criminals. The >female settler who portrayed the Prophet Mohamed as a pig - which >immediately prompted Hamas's promise of revenge - may indeed have >acted alone. But if the settlements had been closed down, the >incident would never have occurred. What the suicide bombings did last >week was to refocus Western attention on the cruelty, rather than the >causes, of the violence. > > Taher al-Adwan, editor of the Jordanian daily Al-Arab Al-Yom, >represented the Arab view bluntly last week. "The Israelis tear up >peace agreements," he wrote. "For withdrawal from the occupied >territories, they substitute aggressive settlement expansion. They >assault the holy places and insult Islam. Then above all this, they >demand security, stability and peace." > > It is no satisfaction to realise that one's worst predictions are >swiftly being fulfilled. Only a madman does not want peace. But the >dishonesty built into the Oslo agreement and Washington's gutless and >uncritical response to all of Israel's actions have led the region to >the abyss. Dennis Ross's return to the Middle East this week is >surely more a gesture to disprove America's impotence than a serious >attempt to revive a "peace process" that the Middle East already >regards as dead. > > And if the West Bank burns, do the Israelis believe that the >Hizbollah will call a truce north of the Israeli border? Syria, too, >is being accused once again by Israel of support for "world terror" - >and Israel has again refused to return the occupied Syrian Golan >Heights. So is Damascus also to be a target? Last week, President >Assad of Syria - after telling President Mubarak of Egypt that he sees >no immediate hope of peace - paid his first visit to Tehran for seven >years. He wanted to meet the new Iranian president but he took with >him a clutch of Syrian generals to discuss what Damascus called >"strategic relations" between the two countries. The Hizbollah's >weapons are shipped through Syria -from Iran. > > As for the Palestinians, an ever-growing number believe that >Arafat's role is to be Israel's full-time policeman, to suppress, >crush and eliminate all Palestinian opposition groups so that Israel >can continue to dispossess Palestinians, so that Israeli settlements >can be built on occupied Arab land, and so Israel can withdraw >residence papers from Palestinians who have lived in Jerusalem for >generations and thus "Judaicise" Islam's third holiest city. By acting >as policeman - by ensuring there is no violent Palestinian response to >these acts - Arafat would, in effect, become the means by which Israel >can now tear up the peace treaty. > > But he probably does not have the time. The West may wilfully >ignore the warnings but there is no excuse for Israelis or >Palestinians to do so. And there have been plenty of Israelis willing >- however vainly - to warn of what is to come. As long ago as April >the Israeli commentator Hemi Shalev wrote in Maariv that ". . .more >and more people, including those who should know, are starting to >believe that an enormous explosion is unavoidable. If the Americans do >not succeed in stopping the deterioration at the last moment, and if >the leaders do not come to their senses before it is too late, the >region will go up in flames and the historic act of conciliation will >sink in rivers of blood, both ours and theirs." Mr Shalev's analysis >was ignored. > >---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > The Jerusalem Post > August 1, 1997, Friday > > "Syria: We'll take Golan by force, if necessary" > > By David Rudge > > Syrian Chief of Staff Hikhmat Shihabi yesterday warned that > his country would take back the Golan Heights by force if it cannot do > so peacefully. > > His comments in the Al-Ba'ath daily were made as President > Hafez Assad made a rare visit to Teheran to meet with Iranian > leaders. > > Shihabi was quoted in the official government newspaper as > saying that Syria is prepared in the event of war and would not > be intimidated if Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu moves > towards confrontation. > > The newspaper interview, to mark the 52nd anniversary of > the establishment of the Syrian army, was seen by some observers as > an indication that Assad is considering a military option, > especially in light of his recent comments expressing pessimism > over the peace process. > > Prof. Ze'ev Maoz, head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic > Studies, said that the continuing deadlock in the peace process has > brought the possibility of a military confrontation with Syria much > closer for Israel. > > "The Syrian army has intensified its efforts on three levels. > On the conventional level, it has tried to improve its training and > over the past year, we have seen several major military exercises > based on offensive scenarios," he said. > > "A second indication is the upgrading in terms of readiness > and improvements in Syria's missiles and non- conventional > weapons. Thirdly, they have also been trying to upgrade their > outdated armor, guidance systems, air force, and surface-to-air > missiles." > > Maoz said another indication Assad is considering a > military option is that key figures in the regime have been > "persistently trying to motivate people in the armed forces" to > consider and accept the idea. > > "I believe that the situation on the ground is such that > the Syrians are capable of launching a surprise attack at any > moment. The question is whether there is a political decision and > how much cost they are willing to bear. > > "In my opinion, every day that passes and every default of > the government on negotiations with Syria, coupled with the > Knesset decision last week (on the bill to strengthen the Golan > Law), brings the prospect of military confrontation closer," Maoz > said. > >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >- > > The Jerusalem Post > July 18, 1997, Friday > > "Syria aims to settle old debts" > > By Steve Rodan > > Looking toward Russia as a comrade in arms-purchasing, Syria > is beefing up its military might, Steve Rodan reports > > These days, Israeli military commanders face a conundrum as > they look toward their northern border. > > The puzzle is Syria. On paper, the Syrian military is weak, > far weaker than when it launched the surprise attack in the 1973 > Yom Kippur War. The Syrians have fewer tanks, far fewer > fighter-jets, an aging air defense system and an outdated Soviet > military doctrine. > > That's why they're proceeding with what Israeli and Arab > sources agree is an ambitious program of rearmament. President Hafez Assad > is focusing on strengthening Syria's armored corps and amassing a > missile arsenal meant to launch a punishing attack on Israel > and defend against Israeli Air Force raids on Damascus. > > "We are following developments," Air Force Commander > Maj.-Gen. Eitan Ben-Eliahu says. "We are examining the possibility > that there will be unexpected developments." > > At the same time, the Syrians are busy training their > forces. Intelligence sources say Syrian troops last month completed a > series of maneuvers and exercises aimed at punching through Israeli > defenses on the Golan Heights. The sources say the success of the > exercises appears to give Assad the option of a limited war > against Israel although they don't see evidence of such a > move taking place imminently. > > "Assad wants the Golan back during his lifetime," an > intelligence officer says. "He is willing to get it back peacefully, but > he is preparing a military option as well." > > The Syrian exercises included the fortification of Scud B and > Scud C missile batteries against Israeli air attack. Scud missiles > have been transported from one fortified shelter to another in an > apparent attempt to outwit the enemy as to which shelters contain > missiles and which are empty. > > Moreover, the Syrians have stepped up efforts to insert > Syrian-made chemical warheads in the estimated 800 Scud Bs and Cs > they possess. The Israel Air Force assesses that by the year 2000 > Syria, which by then will have full missile production > capabilities, will possess 1,500 surface-to-surface missiles. The > focus is on trying to install VX nerve gas in the missile warheads, > an effort that Western intelligence sources say has not yet fully > succeeded. VX is regarded as the most dangerous of all nerve > gases and can remain in the area for several days. > > Syria, however, is getting help. Its main supplier is Russia, > and already Damascus and Moscow have renewed discussions over the > purchase of several models of advanced anti-aircraft missiles, > including the SA-12 surface-to-air missile, which Western defense > sources say has the capability to intercept enemy missiles. > > The discussions are regarded as the most serious since Moscow > cut off its weapons supply to Syria in 1991 because it could not repay > its $ 11 billion debt to Moscow. Israeli military sources assess > that Syria badly needs an advanced Russian anti-aircraft system as > a key component of its stepped-up effort to launch a limited surprise > attack on the Golan Heights. > > During his recent tour of the US, Chief of General Staff > Lt.-Gen. Amnon Lipkin-Shahak warned his American counterparts that the > Syrian military is increasing its capabilities as well as > preparing its officers for war. " Syria is continuing to improve > its capability to execute a surprise attack against Israel, " he > told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on June 24. > > As IDF commanders see it, Syria, which has thousands of > crack commandos on the slopes of Mount Hermon, wants to launch an > offensive on the Golan Heights. Damascus might fire missiles at > key Israeli installations to prevent a quick call-up of the > reserves. The SA-10 and SA-12 would be used to protect > Damascus from any retaliatory Israeli air strike. > > The SA-12 is an improved version of the SA-10 or the > S-300 surface-to-air missile, being sold to Cyprus. The SA- 10 is similar > to the US Patriot, used unsuccessfully to intercept Iraqi Scud > missiles fired toward Israel during the Gulf War, and Western > defense sources say the SA-12 is superior to the American system. > > "Our information from both the Russians and our own contacts > in Moscow is that the SA-12 has interception capabilities of three > to four times that of the Patriot," a Western diplomat in Tel Aviv, > an expert in Russian arms, says. "This would be the most advanced > anti- aircraft technology in the Middle East." > > Syria's defense system today is based on the SA-6 and SA-8, > the latter shipped to Syria in the early 1980s. Yiftah Shapir, > a researcher at Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for > Strategic Studies says these systems are outdated. > > "They are very old in terms of technology," Shapir says. > "Today's technology can easily handle these systems. We are talking > about Syria trying to replace the SA-5 with the SA-10, which can > deal with the self-protection systems found in many modern > jet-fighters." > > According to Jane's Land Based Defense publication, the SA-10 > has a maximum effective range of 90 km. at a maximum altitude of 30 > km. The SA-12 has two models. The A model has a range of 75 km. and > the B has a range of 100 km., with a missile interception range of 40 > km. > > Syria has for years eyed the SA-10. During the March 14 visit of > a Russian military delegation to Damascus, headed by Gen. > Mikhail Timkin, senior vice president of Russia's state-owned > arms export Rosvoorouzhenie, the wish became possible. Defense > sources say the focus of the visit was to examine the possibility > of upgrading Syria's armor and air defense capabilities. The > discussions continued during the visit of another Russian military > delegation in April. > > The Russians want to expand their arms sales and Syria is > the likely choice. Sergey Kolchin, a Moscow-based economist, > cites Russian Defense Ministry figures that Russian arms exports have > jumped from $ 2.3 billion in 1992 to $ 3.4b. in 1996 and the > ministry assesses that the exports will soar to $ 10b. by 2000. The > developing markets include such countries as Syria, Iran, Egypt and > the Gulf, as well as the Far East and Latin America. > > "Hopes are placed mainly in the Near East market where there > exist solid traditions of Russian arms purchasing," Kolchin writes in > the Moscow-based Rabochaya Tribuna. "Syria remains a traditional > partner." > > The Jaffee Center's Shapir agrees. "The Russians have > no ideological problems selling the SA-12 to the Syrians," he says. > "They can easily present this as a defensive weapon. The fact that > they have not done this is because of financial considerations. The > main problem is the old debt of Syria to Russia. The Syrians are > not willing to compromise on this." > > The Syrians argue that they have long served Moscow as an ally > and provided the former Soviet Union with a port at Latakia along > the eastern Mediterranean, benefits that make up for the arms sales > during the 1970s and 1980s. Their argument has evoked empathy in the > Russian Foreign Ministry, which under the tutelage of Yevgeny > Primakov is lobbying to renew arms sales to Syria as a way for > Russia to revive its influence in the Middle East. Indeed, in April > 1994, the Foreign Ministry pushed through an agreement to > renew weapons sales to Damascus - an accord that has not yet been > implemented by the Russian arms industry. > > The details are still unclear but Gulf Arab sources say > the problem of Syria's debt to Russia is slowly being resolved. Based > on two meetings of Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Haddam with > Gulf leaders this year, the sources have told US officials that > since 1992 Iran and Saudi Arabia have been steadily repaying the > Syrian debt to Moscow. They estimate that as much as two-thirds of > the debt has been repaid and the rest is being conditioned on > renewing Russian arms purchases to Syria. > > Other Arab sources say Russia has informally agreed to > forgive two-thirds of the Syrian debt. > > Last March, Iranian Defense Minister Mohammed Foruzandeh said > Iran will "participate in a project to modernize Syrian military > equipment as part of the defense agreement concluded between > Damascus and Teheran. The Syrian army has been upgrading its > capability and acquiring advanced technology." > > Russian officials deny the reports that the Syrian debt is > being eliminated. Indeed, some of them appear resigned to the > likelihood that Damascus will never pay its debt. "In such a case, > better we keep selling them and make some money rather than not > make anything at all," one Russian diplomatic source says. > > The Gulf diplomatic sources say under a new arrangement, Syria > can now order weapons from Russia for cash, some of which would > be allotted to repay past debts. The sources say Syria's Haddam > and Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa jointly visited the Gulf > countries and asked for financial assistance in January and in May. > > Despite the activity, US officials say Syria is far from ready > for war. Some leading Arab analysts agree, insisting that Syria's > Assad still has not given up hope on US efforts to facilitate a > settlement with Israel. At the same time, pointing to Saudi > Arabia's economic difficulties, they are skeptical whether Syria > will obtain the Gulf funding for new arms deals. > > "Hafez Assad and Abdul Halim Haddam have not taken the > decision that war is coming," Nasser Eddin-Nashashibi, a prominent Arab > analyst and former adviser to several Arab governments, says. "I > think Assad is committed strategically for peace. He has enough > troubles with Lebanon and the Turks. I don't think a wise man like > Assad would wage war when his allies are less numerous than his > enemies." > >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >- > > BBC Summary of World Broadcasts > August 8, 1997, Friday > > Paper says Israel "pushing region towards an explosion" > > Source: Syrian Arab Republic Radio, Damascus, > in Arabic 0430 gmt 6 Aug 97 > > Excerpts from report by Syrian radio on 6th August > > Under the headline " Israel Is Pushing the Region Towards > an Explosion," 'Al-Ba'th' says: Everyone now knows that > Netanyahu's government is executing a premeditated scheme, whose > features became clear in the recent past, and pushing the > region towards a big explosion. With this explosion, Israel seeks > to reshuffle the cards once again, end the peace process and start > implementing its declared programme to entrench its occupation of > the Arab territories and realize the settlement and Judaization > plans... > > 'Al-Ba'th'notes developments in the region, the most dangerous > of which are the suffocating sieges imposed by Israel on the > occupied territories, the constant savage attacks against South > Lebanon and the Netanyahu government's refusal to accept any > international calls and appeals to retreat from its intransigent > positions. In the light of all this, and in the absence of > any effective and decisive international move, particularly by > the United States, which, as all signs indicate, has disavowed > its role in the peace process, the region is moving towards an > explosion. Israel and those who support its intransigence will > be responsible for this explosion and its destructive results... > > 'Tishrin' says that Israel's government has chosen the policy > of avoiding the main issues, now that its policy has been exposed and > its serious, aggressive course is constantly condemned by the world. > The current escalation against the Lebanese people falls > within the context of this policy. > > The paper wonders: When will this adventurous, aggressive > and provocative course - that is leading the region from bad to worse, > and that is inflicting great damage on the peace process and its > sponsors - be allowed to continue unchecked sentence as heard=DD? > > 'Al-Thawrah' discusses the same issue, saying: When the Tel > Aviv gang encroaches on the territory of others, carries out acts of > piracy in South Lebanon, violates the April understanding, and > when it exercises mass murder, the policy of scorched land and > systematic state terrorism, then this constitutes the highest > degree of provocation and challenges. It is very difficult to put > up with, and keep silent about, state terrorism and to allow those > who pursue it to mess around with the region's security and threaten > world peace. > > The paper urges the United States to take a responsible, > balanced, swift and decisive position... > > The paper notes that the world community and its > various institutions, as well as Europe and the other peace-loving nations > of the world, also have a role that must develop an effective > and deterrent force to put pressure on and confront Israel and > its attempts to bully others and turn the Arab homeland into a > testing ground for the aggressiveness of Netanyahu and other Zionist > figures. > > Concluding, the paper says: The kind of peace in which we > believe, and that we seek to achieve for us and for the others, is the peace > of the brave, and not the peace of the weak or of occupation. > >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >- > > Deutsche Presse-Agentur > August 5, 1997, Tuesday, BC Cycle > 10:19 Central European Time > > "Netanyahu concerned over Syria-Iran alliance" > > Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu Tuesday voiced concern > about the growing ties between Syria and Iran, following the visit > to Teheran last week by Syrian President Hafez Assad. > > "Syria should weigh where its real interest lay," said > Netanyahu during an inspection tour of an army base. > > "Syria would do well to bear in mind that conflict with Israel > is not in its interests and that peace with Israel could give > it advantages that will put it in the first line of states in > the region," he said. > > The comments reflected growing Israeli- Syria tensions. On > Monday Defence Minsiter Itzhak Mordechai said that the Iranian-Syrian > ties were "a growing danger". > > The Ma'ariv daily reported that a senior security source > told legislators that the Syrians were "building the capability of > a surprise attack though we have not seen concrete intentions to > attack Israel" >
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