From: 	 heb_roots_chr@mail.geocities.com
Sent: 	 Tuesday, October 7, 1997 2:28 AM
To: 	 Hebraic Heritage Newsgroup
Subject: Iran Missile Technology



From:          "EDWARD L CHUMNEY" <chumney@timken.com>
Subject:       Iran Missile Technology
To:            <HEB_ROOTS_CHR@geocities.com>

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    THE JERUSALEM POST DAILY INTERNET EDITION

               Wednesday, October  1, 1997
                     29 Elul 5757


          Israel in Iranian missile range by 1999
              By STEVE RODAN and news agencies


 JERUSALEM (October 1) - With the help of advanced Russian technology, Iran will
 be able to produce a medium-range missile that would put Israel in striking
 range within 18 months, an official said yesterday.Together with Iranian efforts
 to develop a nuclear weapon, the missile program could have serious
 implications for the balance of power in the region. Hundreds of Russian
 scientists and technicians were involved in the project, the official told
 reporters at a briefing.

 He said that two Russian outfits - the Polyus Research Institute in Moscow and
 Kutznetzov, formerly NPO-Trud, in the town of Samara - were developing the
 engine and guidance system of the missile. Tests of some components were
 carried out recently and were successful.

 Another official said two Russian academic institutions were involved in
 developing rocket propulsion systems - the Bauman National Technical University
 in Moscow and the Tsagi Institute.

 The official estimated that within 18 months, Iran will be able to produce the
 Shihab 3, a liquid-fuel missile with a range of 1,300 kilometers and a payload
 of 700 kilograms. It was the most detailed warning issued yet by Israel of the
 threat posed by Russian aid to Iran. Israel has been trying to persuade the
 United States to take sanctions against Moscow's participation in Teheran's
 ballistic missile and non-conventional weapons programs. Sources said that in
 all, Iran is developing four missiles.

 The Shihab 3 is considered the completed version of North Korea's Nodung
 missile. The Shihab 4 - with a range of 2,000 kilometers and a payload of more
 than one ton - is based on the technology of the Russian SS-4.

 Two other planned missile programs, which have not been named, aim to produce
 missiles with a range of 4,500 to 10,000 kilometers. The latter would be able
 to strike the east coast of the US.

 In an interview today with The Jerusalem Post, Defense Minister Yitzhak
 Mordechai says that Iran is on the verge of producing medium-range missiles
 and would be able to deploy them by 1999, given continued Russian help.

 "The picture is very clear to Israel and the US," the source said. "The
 argument is at what point will Iran be able to develop missiles independently
 without Russian help."

 An Israeli official monitoring the Iranian program agreed.

 "There is a sense of urgency in both Israel and in the US," he said. "The
 assessments are the same. We have some disagreement about tactics, or how to
 deal with Russia."

 Yiftah Shapir, a researcher at Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for
 Strategic Studies, thought Israel was overestimating Iran's technological
 capabilities.

 "This assessment seems very exaggerated," he said. "It will take several
 years of tests until the missile is operational. Take India. It took them six
 to seven years of tests until its missile moved out of the development stage
 to the operational stage."

 The joint US-Israeli intelligence assessment is that the Shihab 3 is making
 significant progress.  Since development was launched in 1994, the missile
 has completed required wind tunnel tests  of the cone, and the engine has
 been tested as well, sources said. The navigation and control systems are
 believed to be in stages of advanced development although they may not have
 been completed. Once all the components are completed, it would take a year
 to integrate them, sources said.

 The navigation and control systems are believed to be in stages of advanced
 development although they may not have been completed. Once all the components
 are completed, it would take a year to integrate them, sources said.

 Israeli officials have said that Russian aid to Iran was in violation of the
 Missile Control Technology Regime, ratified in 1987 and signed by Russia
 in 1996. Article 1 of the MCTR bans the transfer of missile technology.

 But Israel and the US disagree about how to deal with the Russian assistance
 to Iran. The US has expressed concern about Russia's aid to Iran but has
 rejected calls by Israeli leaders to cut aid to Moscow. Mordechai says he
 supports lobbying Congress to cut funds to the Russians.

 But so far the Clinton administration has reacted angrily to attempts to lobby
 Congress on this issue. A warning to this effect was issued last week in
 Washington to Foreign Ministry official Shimon Stein. Israeli diplomatic
 sources said the White House seemed to fear that too much pressure on Russia
 could endanger the position of President Boris Yeltsin.

 "We want more drastic action taken against Russia," an Israeli official
 said. "At the same time, we know that Russia is a superpower and you have to
 be very careful how you treat it."

 Russia has consistently denied helping Iran's ballistic missile program. But
 Israeli and US intelligence sources say Yeltsin's aides have known about the
 massive technology transfer from the start. Israel believes that Moscow is in
 a rush to try to complete Iran's ballistic missile program before coming under
 heavy pressure to drop its role. The sources said that Russian companies,
 including state-owned concerns, were making several hundred million dollars
 from the missile development program. They asserted that the sum seemed paltry
 compared to the billions of dollars in annual Russian arms sales.But Moscow
 may consider Iran as a strategic ally in threatening Western interests in the
 Gulf and Asia, a source said.

 "This program is a good opportunity for Russia to gain leverage over Iran and
 endanger US interests in the Gulf and become a regional power."

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