From: 	 heb_roots_chr@mail.geocities.com
Sent: 	 Friday, October 17, 1997 12:11 AM
To: 	 Hebraic Heritage Newsgroup
Subject: 1998: War in the Middle East? (Intelligence Digest)



From:          Bill Mee 
To:            Hebrew Roots <heb_roots_chr@geocities.com>
Subject:       1998:  War in the Middle East? (Intelligence Digest)


1998: War in the Middle East?

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One of the worldÆs top intelligence analysts says he expects Russia to
invade the Middle East as early as the second half of next year.

Joseph de Courcy, editor of BritainÆs highly regarded Intelligence
Digest, has long predicted such an invasion -- but not for several
more years. De Courcy cites a number of recent developments that, he
believes, indicate that timetable has been speeded up.

The main reason the Arabs and Iranians have delayed a war, says de
Courcy, is because the peace process has promised them vital real
estate concessions that would make military victory more likely.
However, it is becoming increasingly clear to Damascus and Tehran that
there is no longer any political mandate in Israel for more
territorial concessions.

Another reason for waiting has been the desire by the Tehran-Damascus
axis to neutralize IsraelÆs nuclear deterrent. Even without the
acquisition of a deliverable nuclear bomb, Syria may have developed
sufficient Scud C missile capability as to rule out an Israeli nuclear
option, de Courcy explains.

But what about Russia? This is where de CourcyÆs observations get most
interesting -- and alarming.

IsraelÆs military pact with Turkey, signed just last year, was
believed by many to preclude the possibility of another Syrian attack.
But there are two ways this important treaty between Ankara and
Jerusalem can be undermined.

Turkey faces a continuing threat from Islamic fundamentalism. De
Courcy says, even now, the Turkish army is preparing for an
Algerian-style Islamic uprising. Secondly, Turkey can be neutralized
by its neighbor Russia.

There is now the distinct possibility (openly aired by TurkeyÆs
former prime minister Tansu Ciller) that Turkey could find itself at
war with Russia, over the supply of Russian S-300 missiles to Cyprus,
by the end of 1998, de Courcy writes.

Turkey says delivery of the missiles would mean war. Russia says it
intends to deliver the weapons by the end of 1998. Ciller says, point
blank, if there is no change in policy, Turkey is going to war with
Russia.

Why would Russia risk war with Turkey over a seemingly trivial
strategic issue? De Courcy reminds us that this may be RussiaÆs last
chance to do what so many nationalists in that country truly want --
to re-establish itself as a superpower by providing the Islamic world
with the means to defeat Israel and conquer Jerusalem.

De Courcy suggests recent reports by Gen. Alexander Lebed and others
about suitcase-sized nuclear bombs on the loose play a role in this
plot. It is this weapons -- real or not -- that will neutralize
America in this giant endgame strategy, he says.

ôWhether or not any of these suitcase nuclear bombs have actually gone
missing is now almost irrelevant, he writes. After LebedÆs
statement, what American president is going to call the bluff of a
terrorist group that says it has one (or more) of these bombs
(described by Lebed as æideal for nuclear terrorÆ) which it is going
to explode in an American city (or cities) in the event that the
United States moves to protect Israel against an Arab/Iranian assault?

And here de Courcy is missing one other important element. The United
States is not prepared to fight in such a war. Its military
infrastructure has been completed gutted by the Clinton
administration. Now, at a time when the U.S. is incapable of
mobilizing the kind of force it deployed in the Persian Gulf War,
Clinton is asking for even more cuts in defense appropriations.

Add this to the mix. Suppose De CourcyÆs scenario is even half right
and thereÆs conflict in the Middle East next year or the year after.
WouldnÆt that be the ideal time for North Korea to launch its
long-anticipated invasion of the south? ThereÆs no way the U.S. would
be prepared to fight on two fronts.

De Courcy is by no means stating categorically that a Middle East war
next year is inevitable. But he is issuing an unusually strong warning.

The next 18 months in the Middle East will be fraught with danger,
and it will take statecraft of the highest possible order on the part
of the United States if a catastrophic war in the Middle East
involving chemical, biological and nuclear weapons is to be avoided,
he writes in his bulletin.

ArenÆt you glad weÆve got Bill Clinton in the White House?

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Joseph Farah is editor of the Internet newspaper WorldNetDaily.com and
Executive Director of the Western Journalism Center, an independent
group of investigative reporters.

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Bill

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